---
title: "Will Be 'Extremely Difficult' For The FOMC To Not Raise Rates Says Richards"
description: "Bond traders are pricing in a Federal Reserve interest-rate hike Wednesday with a level of conviction that has proven right for decades. Interest-rate swaps tied to Fed meeting dates show traders see more than a 90% chance that Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh and his colleagues will lift the benchmark policy rate by a quarter point from the current 3.5%-3.75% range. That equates to roughly 23 basis point"
section: market-watch
published: 2026-09-15T20:07:02.411314+00:00
canonical: https://valorandventures.media/article/b00db27b-fa8e-4659-85d5-63b0e6b3f362
publisher: "Valor & Ventures Media"
source: "Bloomberg"
source_url: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2026-09-15/will-be-difficult-for-fomc-to-not-raise-rates-richards-video
access: free
---

# Will Be 'Extremely Difficult' For The FOMC To Not Raise Rates Says Richards

*Bond traders are pricing in a Federal Reserve interest-rate hike Wednesday with a level of conviction that has proven right for decades. Interest-rate swaps tied to Fed meeting dates show traders see more than a 90% chance that Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh and his colleagues will lift the benchmark policy rate by a quarter point from the current 3.5%-3.75% range. That equates to roughly 23 basis point*

## Executive Summary

Bond market participants are exhibiting a high degree of certainty that the Federal Reserve will raise its benchmark interest rate at its upcoming Wednesday session. According to a Bloomberg report, interest-rate swaps tied to the central bank's meeting dates reflect a probability of more than 90 percent that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will implement a quarter-percentage-point increase. This exceptionally strong consensus among bond traders has historically served as an incredibly accurate predictor of central bank policy shifts over several decades, signaling that current market expectations are firmly aligned with a tightening move. The proposed adjustment would elevate the federal funds rate from its current target range of 3.5% to 3.75%. Market data indicates that traders have priced in approximately 23 basis points of tightening, reflecting nearly unanimous anticipation of the 25-basis-point increase. Financial analyst Richards noted in the report that it will be "extremely difficult" for the central bank's policy-setting committee to deviate from this path, given the overwhelming momentum in market pricing. The upcoming policy decision will be overseen by Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh and his fellow policymakers as they navigate the nation's ongoing macroeconomic challenges. The intense conviction displayed by bond traders is notable for its long-term reliability, having accurately forecast monetary policy decisions for several generations of market cycles. When derivative pricing reaches such a lopsided threshold, central banks generally hesitate to surprise the financial system, as unexpected pauses or cuts can trigger significant market disruption. Consequently, the FOMC faces a delicate policy landscape where failing to deliver the expected rate hike could destabilize markets just as much as an aggressive move. This dynamic strongly reinforces the expectation that the committee will proceed with the quarter-point increase to preserve market alignment and credibility. For business executives, founders, and veteran leaders, this highly anticipated shift in monetary policy carries substantial operational and strategic weight. A rising interest rate environment directly influences the broader cost of capital, impacting corporate borrowing strategies, venture valuations, and long-term expansion plans. Executives must carefully evaluate their debt structures, liquidity profiles, and cash flow management to withstand these heightened borrowing costs. By closely monitoring these macroeconomic indicators and the high-probability forecasts of the bond market, decision-makers can better position their organizations to remain resilient and competitive through changing monetary environments.

## Article

Bond traders are pricing in a Federal Reserve interest-rate hike Wednesday with a level of conviction that has proven right for decades. Interest-rate swaps tied to Fed meeting dates show traders see more than a 90% chance that Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh and his colleagues will lift the benchmark policy rate by a quarter point from the current 3.5%-3.75% range. That equates to roughly 23 basis point
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Bloomberg

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Originally published by Bloomberg: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2026-09-15/will-be-difficult-for-fomc-to-not-raise-rates-richards-video